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ANon-asymptotic Analysisof Non-parametric Temporal-Difference Learning
Theorem 1.Let n 9. Underassumption(A2) with 1 < 1, thereexistapositivereal number independentofnsuchthat, for 0 , (a) Using = 0n Also, simplecomputationsshowthatV is anaffinetransformofr: V (x)= ar(x)+ b, witha =( 1 (1 ")) 1 andb = a Wealsoacknowledgesupport fromthe European Research Council (gran...
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Executable Epistemology: The Structured Cognitive Loop as an Architecture of Intentional Understanding
Large language models exhibit intelligence without genuine epistemic understanding, exposing a key gap: the absence of epistemic architecture. This paper introduces the Structured Cognitive Loop (SCL) as an executable epistemological framework for emergent intelligence. Unlike traditional AI research asking "what is intelligence?" (ontological), SCL asks "under what conditions does cognition emerge?" (epistemological). Grounded in philosophy of mind and cognitive phenomenology, SCL bridges conceptual philosophy and implementable cognition. Drawing on process philosophy, enactive cognition, and extended mind theory, we define intelligence not as a property but as a performed process -- a continuous loop of judgment, memory, control, action, and regulation. SCL makes three contributions. First, it operationalizes philosophical insights into computationally interpretable structures, enabling "executable epistemology" -- philosophy as structural experiment. Second, it shows that functional separation within cognitive architecture yields more coherent and interpretable behavior than monolithic prompt based systems, supported by agent evaluations. Third, it redefines intelligence: not representational accuracy but the capacity to reconstruct its own epistemic state through intentional understanding. This framework impacts philosophy of mind, epistemology, and AI. For philosophy, it allows theories of cognition to be enacted and tested. For AI, it grounds behavior in epistemic structure rather than statistical regularity. For epistemology, it frames knowledge not as truth possession but as continuous reconstruction within a phenomenologically coherent loop. We situate SCL within debates on cognitive phenomenology, emergence, normativity, and intentionality, arguing that real progress requires not larger models but architectures that realize cognitive principles structurally.
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Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
Allison, David M., Herzog, Stephen
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.
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Full-Stack Alignment: Co-Aligning AI and Institutions with Thick Models of Value
Edelman, Joe, Zhi-Xuan, Tan, Lowe, Ryan, Klingefjord, Oliver, Wang-Mascianica, Vincent, Franklin, Matija, Kearns, Ryan Othniel, Hain, Ellie, Sarkar, Atrisha, Bakker, Michiel, Barez, Fazl, Duvenaud, David, Foerster, Jakob, Gabriel, Iason, Gubbels, Joseph, Goodman, Bryce, Haupt, Andreas, Heitzig, Jobst, Jara-Ettinger, Julian, Kasirzadeh, Atoosa, Kirkpatrick, James Ravi, Koh, Andrew, Knox, W. Bradley, Koralus, Philipp, Lehman, Joel, Levine, Sydney, Marro, Samuele, Revel, Manon, Shorin, Toby, Sutherland, Morgan, Tessler, Michael Henry, Vendrov, Ivan, Wilken-Smith, James
Beneficial societal outcomes cannot be guaranteed by aligning individual AI systems with the intentions of their operators or users. Even an AI system that is perfectly aligned to the intentions of its operating organization can lead to bad outcomes if the goals of that organization are misaligned with those of other institutions and individuals. For this reason, we need full-stack alignment, the concurrent alignment of AI systems and the institutions that shape them with what people value. This can be done without imposing a particular vision of individual or collective flourishing. We argue that current approaches for representing values, such as utility functions, preference orderings, or unstructured text, struggle to address these and other issues effectively. They struggle to distinguish values from other signals, to support principled normative reasoning, and to model collective goods. We propose thick models of value will be needed. These structure the way values and norms are represented, enabling systems to distinguish enduring values from fleeting preferences, to model the social embedding of individual choices, and to reason normatively, applying values in new domains. We demonstrate this approach in five areas: AI value stewardship, normatively competent agents, win-win negotiation systems, meaning-preserving economic mechanisms, and democratic regulatory institutions.
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